Population projections are difficult to model. If the world as a whole were to embrace reproductive rates similar to those of Germany, the Goa and Kerala provinces of India, Italy, Japan, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, or Thailand, there could be fewer than 4 billion people on the planet by 2100, even as longevity increases. Or less than 3 billion if we followed Taiwan’s rates. And none of these places have policies which place restrictions on reproduction.
Test the implications of fertility rates, age of mother, and mortality rates on future population sizes with our simple downloadable population model.